Liz Truss is the only former party leader of past five years to rank lower in terms of starting popularity…reports Asian Lite News
Kemi Badenoch’s personal approval ratings at the start of her Tory leadership are worse than those recorded by Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson at the start of their reigns, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
The new Tory leader’s net approval rating – the difference between those who approve or disapprove of the job she is doing – sits at -5%. The only former party leader of the past five years that she beats in terms of her starting popularity is Liz Truss, whose first approval rating was -9% after she won the leadership.
Badenoch’s net approvals show that she has divided voters, with 20% approving of her and 25% disapproving. About 46% of voters who backed the Tories at the last election say they approve of her, though a third (36%) say they feel neutral. Her approval rating is still far better than the -22% score endured by Sunak at the end of his leadership.
Meanwhile, Keir Starmer’s approval rating is low at -24 points, but unchanged from the last poll a fortnight ago. However, he leads Badenoch by 12 percentage points when voters are asked who they regard as the best prime minister. Two weeks ago, when Sunak was still Conservative leader, the gap was seven points.
Voters do seem to be aware of Badenoch’s reputation as someone with strong convictions – a quality that recommended her to many Tory MPs, but worried others. Early in her time as leader, voters perceive her as sticking to her principles, being brave and being decisive. The largest gap between Badenoch and Starmer is on bravery, with her net score of +8 contrasting with Starmer’s net score of -19%.
It is also the first Opinium poll since president-elect Donald Trump’s US election victory. His return appears to have polarised the UK electorate. Almost a third (30%) feel that Trump’s election is positive for the US, compared with 44% who see it as a bad development. Almost three-quarters (72%) still believe the UK and US have a lot in common, but only 56% consider the country an ally.
More than two in five (43%) think the UK should stand up for what we think is right, even if that means breaking with the US on key issues. Just over a third think the level of UK spending on defence and the armed forces is too low. Almost half of UK adults believe Trump’s re-election is a bad thing for Ukraine.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium, said: “Day-to-day British politics has been overshadowed by the re-election of Donald Trump, which Brits see as good news for rivals like Russia and bad news for Ukraine. However, there’s no sign yet that the public will be pressuring the Labour government to increase defence spending, with two in five opposed to any further tax rises to fund it.”
Sunak’s aides advised against early polls
Rishi Sunak’s top aides advised him not to call an early election, warning him that voters would be less likely to feel “financially optimistic” in the summer and that Conservatives would not be able to “hit Labour hard with both fists”.
Isaac Levido, who directed the election campaign for the Conservatives, and Michael Brooks, a Tory strategist, issued the warning to the former prime minister in a blunt memo on 3 April, seven weeks before the election was called.
The pair strongly argued that Sunak should delay the election until after the summer. “It is strategically most beneficial to have an autumn election in October or November,” they explained in the memo, revealed in The Sunday Times.
“We need as much time as possible for economic metrics to improve and for voters to feel better off. An earlier election gives us less scope to communicate about economic progress, because voters are less likely to feel financially optimistic.”
Calling an election before the summer would remove “potential positive psychological effects of summer”, including those resulting from lower energy bills, holidays, better weather, the Euro 24 football tournament and even the Olympics, according to the memo.
The memo acknowledged there was a risk for the Conservatives that a late election “could leave us vulnerable to internal party division and other off-message distractions and policy challenges (eg strikes, increased Channel crossings)”.
Sunak and his aides had, by then, given up hoping that the Bank of England would successively cut interest rates. But, the memo argued, going to the country early would mean the Tories would have to communicate more “wedge” issue policies “because we would have less ammunition to fight on the economy”.
The memo concluded: “The election will be a fist fight, and we want to be able to throw punches with both fists – our economy fist, and our policy platform/reform fist … in summer, our ability to fight on the economy will be weaker, meaning we will have to punch harder with our reform fist in order to hurt Labour and inject urgency into the campaign. Whereas in autumn, our ability to throw punches on the economy will be stronger, meaning we can hit Labour hard with both fists.”
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