Modi 3.0: Power Play Amid a Resurgent Opposition

Ashraf Nehal and Amal Chandra analyse the shifting political landscape in India during the recent winter session of Parliament. They delve into the interplay between the BJP’s diminished majority, an emboldened opposition, and the complexities of coalition governance. This article examines pivotal developments, including the INDIA bloc’s rising prominence, the BJP’s coalition challenges, and their broader implications for India’s democratic structure

The just concluded winter session of Parliament has been marked by intense political manoeuvring and heated debates, reflecting the complex dynamics of India’s current political landscape. From the controversy surrounding Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks on Dr. B.R. Ambedkar to the opposition’s motion against Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar, the session has been riddled with sharp ideological clashes. In short, the session was characterised by low productivity, marked by acrimonious exchanges between the Treasury and Opposition benches, coupled with protests from the INDIA bloc, while both sides issued a flurry of breach of privilege notices, further deepening the tensions and disrupting the proceedings.In his concluding address, the Rajya Sabha Chairman called for transcending political divides to preserve the integrity of parliamentary proceedings, while Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla issued a stern reminder against protests and disruptions within the House to maintain decorum. Both of them are accused of being partisan and diminishing the esteem of their positions.This session unfolds in a challenging phase of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third consecutive term, following the BJP’s narrower 2024 election victory. Securing only 240 seats, the party was forced to embrace coalition politics for the first time in nearly a decade. Meanwhile, the opposition’s INDIA bloc has grown into a formidable force, leveraging its collective strength to aggressively question the government’s policies and strategies. The evolving dynamics of this session, especially the Constitution and Ambedkar debates, underscore the complexities of coalition governance and a more assertive opposition, raising critical questions about India’s political trajectory. With ideological battles dominating the discourse, the session exemplifies both the vibrancy and the challenges of democracy in a polarized environment.

Opposition’s Offensive: Uniting Against the BJP The BJP’s diminished Lok Sabha majority has emboldened the opposition, with the Congress Party leading a resurgence after years of electoral stagnation. The INDIA bloc has capitalized on this shift, launching coordinated campaigns against government policies and controversies. Protests over Amit Shah’s Ambedkar remarks, referring to the invocation of his name as a “fashion,” and allegations against Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankhar have dominated proceedings, signalling a more unified and proactive opposition strategy. However, maintaining unity within the INDIA bloc remains an uphill battle. Ideological diversity among allies poses risks of fragmentation, especially when contentious issues arise. Despite these challenges, the opposition has managed to compel greater parliamentary scrutiny, forcing the BJP to retreat on certain legislative proposals, such as the Broadcasting Bill. This newfound assertiveness marks a turning point in India’s political equilibrium, though its sustainability hinges on the bloc’s cohesion and strategic clarity. Coalition Challenges: Governing Amid Constraints The BJP’s reliance on coalition partners has significantly altered its governance approach. The need for consensus has slowed decision-making and diluted the government’s ability to push polarizing reforms. Policies that once sailed through Parliament now face protracted negotiations, reflecting the constraints of coalition politics. Economic challenges and tax discussions have further compounded the government’s difficulties. Criticism over inflation and unemployment has forced the BJP to prioritize populist measures in its upcoming budget. While rural development and job creation remain central to its plans, experts warn of potential risks to long-term economic stability. Balancing these immediate demands with sustainable reforms will be a critical test of the government’s economic acumen.

Meanwhile, the opposition’s heightened scrutiny has introduced a new layer of accountability. Recent developments have added new dimensions to India’s political discourse. The latest FIR and ongoing probe into LoP Rahul Gandhi, following a scuffle in Parliament, underscores the increasing tension between the ruling government and opposition leaders. Meanwhile, the Government’s proposal to synchronize elections across India has sparked widespread backlash, with critics arguing that such a move could undermine federalism, exacerbate statewise disparities and finish regional parties. This proposal, which aims to streamline the electoral process, has created divisions not only within the opposition but also among the BJP’s coalition partners, raising questions about its feasibility and long-term implications for India’s democratic framework. This has not only slowed the legislative process but also compelled the government to adopt a more inclusive decision-making style. The ONOE-related bill is under the review of a joint parliamentary committee and the opposition has set a narrative criticising the BJP for undermining Ambedkar’s legacy, with Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi leading the charge, accusing the BJP of being “anti-Constitution.” Whether this fosters stability or exacerbates tensions within the coalition, on both sides, remains to be seen. Ideological Stalemates and Legislative Roadblocks The return to coalition politics has forced the BJP to temper its ideological ambitions. Polarizing reforms have taken a backseat as the party navigates the complexities of alliance management. Recent policy reversals and inclusive parliamentary committee appointments underscore this pragmatic shift. For the opposition, this scenario offers opportunities to shape public discourse and legislative outcomes. While the opposition is vocal about economic issues, crony capitalism and governance failures, it has struggled to present a compelling counter-narrative to Modi’s populism that resonates with large sections of the electorate Thus, the INDIA bloc’s lack of a cohesive and persistent ideological alternative continues to hinder its ability to present a compelling national vision. Regional interests frequently clash with broader objectives, creating vulnerabilities that the BJP could exploit. However, matters like foreign policy–a cornerstone of Modi’s previous terms, have also come under scrutiny. A reduced majority may push the government toward more collaborative approaches, both domestically and internationally. This shift could enable the opposition to advocate for balanced strategies that align with India’s evolving global aspirations.

A Defining Moment for India’s Democracy The third Modi government stands at a critical juncture in Indian democracy. A diminished majority and an emboldened opposition have created a more balanced political environment, fostering rigorous debates and inclusive governance. Yet, this equilibrium comes with its own set of challenges, from coalition fragility to ideological divides. The government’s path forward lies in adapting to constraints while maintaining stability and pursuing meaningful reforms. The opposition’s task is to sustain unity, craft a cohesive vision, and leverage this moment to strengthen democratic institutions. As Parliament grapples with contentious issues and shifting alliances, the outcomes of this session could set the tone for India’s political and policy landscape in the years to come.

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(About the authors:  Ashraf Nehal is an analyst in South Asia, author and columnist based out of London, and Amal Chandra is an author, political analyst and columnist. Follow them on ‘X’ at @ashrafnehal19 and @ens_socialis)