The rising anti-China sentiment in parts of Pakistan, especially in Balochistan, adds new complexities to the relationship…writes Dr Sakariya Kareem
The relationship between Pakistan and China, traditionally characterized as an “all-weather friendship,” has faced significant deterioration in 2024. Several factors have contributed to this decline, including economic instability in Pakistan, security concerns regarding Chinese nationals, and geopolitical shifts in the region.
Pakistan’s ongoing financial turmoil has severely impacted its relationship with China. The country has struggled to meet its debt obligations, which has raised concerns in Beijing about the viability of future investments. In June 2024, during a visit by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to China, it became evident that despite some agreements aimed at enhancing cooperation, China’s willingness to invest further was contingent on Pakistan’s ability to stabilize its economy and improve security conditions for Chinese investments. The Pakistani government has made efforts to address outstanding debts owed to Chinese companies, but these measures have not fully alleviated Beijing’s concerns about Pakistan’s financial health.
Security issues have emerged as another critical point of contention between the two nations. A recent suicide bombing near Karachi airport that killed two Chinese citizens and injured several Pakistani police officers escorting their convoy, highlighted the dangers faced by Chinese nationals working in Pakistan. This incident, among others, has led to increased scrutiny from China regarding the safety of its investments and personnel. Earlier this year, the Pakistani government had launched a military operation aimed at countering insurgencies and improving security for Chinese projects. However, the effectiveness of these measures remains doubtful, especially in light of the recent bombing.
Chinese officials have expressed frustration over Pakistan’s inability to ensure a stable and secure environment for their investments. During discussions with Pakistani leaders, they emphasized that without significant improvements in security and political stability, further investment would be unlikely. The growing anti-China sentiment within certain regions of Pakistan, particularly Balochistan, adds another layer of complexity to the relationship, as local populations protest against perceived exploitation by both the Pakistani government and Chinese enterprises.
The geopolitical landscape is also shifting. As Pakistan seeks to mend ties with the United States and other Western nations, China has become wary of Islamabad’s potential pivot away from their longstanding partnership. This rapprochement with the U.S. under Prime Minister Sharif’s administration has raised alarms in Beijing about losing influence over Pakistan. Consequently, China is assessing its strategic interests in the region and has been looking for alternative partnerships if Pakistan fails to meet its expectations.
Further, Pakistan’s narrative against India has also lost traction internationally. Efforts to rally support from Islamic nations have largely failed, as many countries now view Pakistan through the lens of economic instability rather than geopolitical significance.
The recent border agreement between India and China, which established new patrolling rights along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and was solidified during a bilateral meeting at the BRICS summit, marks a significant shift in regional dynamics. This agreement aims to de-escalate tensions that have persisted since 2020, with both nations expressing a commitment to improving relations. However, this rapprochement poses a potential threat to the China-Pakistan relationship. As India strengthens its ties with China, Pakistan may find itself increasingly isolated, especially given its own economic struggles and security concerns that have frustrated Chinese investments.
Pakistan’s trajectory as a nation has been marred by a series of diplomatic failures that have contributed significantly to its current state of decline. These failures stem from a combination of internal political instability, economic challenges, and an inability to adapt to the shifting dynamics of international relations. As Pakistan grapples with these issues, it becomes evident that its diplomatic missteps are not merely peripheral problems but central to its broader struggles. The disconnect between the ruling elite and the general populace has created a vacuum where effective governance is compromised. Political instability has led to inconsistent foreign policy decisions, undermining any coherent strategy that could be presented to the international community. As noted, “the lack of a social contract between them has resulted in a fractured relationship” between the state and its citizens.
While both China and Pakistan continue to express commitment to their partnership, the realities on the ground suggest that unless Pakistan can stabilize its economy and ensure security for foreign investments, China’s enthusiasm for engagement may wane further. The future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and broader bilateral cooperation hinges on Islamabad’s ability to navigate these complex challenges effectively.
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